• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0891

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 9 00:38:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090037=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-090200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0891
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0737 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming western South Dakota and the
    western Nebraska Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 090037Z - 090200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...New storm development across eastern Wyoming may pose a
    risk for severe winds later this evening across South Dakota and
    western Nebraska. Considerable uncertainty on storm severity remains
    given southward surging outflow and the high-based nature of storms.
    A weather watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Evening water vapor imagery showed a compact shortwave
    trough ejecting across the central Rockies and far western High
    Plains. Ascent and stronger flow aloft from this trough has begun to
    overspread the western edges of the warm and unstable airmass across
    eastern Wyoming. Recent RADAR and satellite trends have shown an
    increase in convective coverage/strength in the last 30 min.
    Plentiful buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE) from SPC mesoanalysis
    will support robust updrafts as high-based storms across eastern
    Wyoming continue to develop eastward into deeper moisture this
    evening. Given the deep and well-mixed PBL, damaging wind gusts
    appear to be the primary threat. Large hail, while initially
    limited, may become a greater threat later this evening as storms
    encounter greater buoyancy farther east. However, weak vertical
    shear( 20-30 kts) and a tendency to grow upscale may limit the
    potential for larger hail.

    To the north and east, a cluster of storms ongoing across
    southwestern North Dakota may also interfere with developing
    convection in the next couple of hours. Southwestward surging
    outflow will tend to undercut storms as they move eastward casting
    doubt on how widespread of a severe threat may develop. Regardless,
    with large buoyancy and the potential for strong downdrafts, some
    severe risk will likely develop this evening. A watch may be needed
    should intensification trends continue.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pwxwxJMkCeZQdp0CxRxfeU-v4fT7ygGKHpqGSop3FFIrP7CFrlim3QLstLDLYbrFMDjM7KV6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 41990471 42190525 43260516 44370528 45440411 45570305
    45390245 45090173 43820177 43170286 42740330 42400386
    41990471=20



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