Mesoscale Discussion 0890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...
Valid 090015Z - 090145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
SUMMARY...Severe threat will focus across northern and eastern
portions of the watch over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Notable mid-level short-wave trough has translated
across the Great Basin into northwestern WY/south-central MT as
evident by an arcing band of weak high-based convection that extends
from eastern WY into southern MT. About 150 mi downstream,
moist-deep convection is in the process of maturing over
northeastern/eastern MT where higher buoyancy and an easterly
low-level component persist. Much of this activity, strongly
influenced by the approaching short wave, is producing large hail,
especially over Richland/Wibaux County MT and northwestern Golden
Valley County ND. Additional thunderstorm development will likely
intensify across southeast MT as the Dakota outflow boundary
propagates into a region of very steep lapse rates where surface
temperatures are in the mid-upper 90s.
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