• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0888

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 22:41:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082241=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-090045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0888
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0541 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...UP of Michigan...Northern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082241Z - 090045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and wind gusts may be noted with storms this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Weak surface boundary, aided in part by Lake Superior
    influences, has oriented itself from Dickinson County MI-northern
    WI. Given the weak vertical wind profiles, strong boundary-layer
    heating has been the primary mechanism for convective development
    along the synoptic front across this region where surface-3km lapse
    rates are near 9 C/km. Over the last few hours, a slow
    conglomeration of storms have evolved near the wind shift and the
    strongest updrafts appear to be producing hail at times. A gradual south/southwest propagation is expected over the next few hours
    before diurnal cooling leads to weakening updrafts. Primary threat
    will be marginally severe hail, and some threat for gusty winds also
    exists given the steep low-level lapse rates. Unless this activity
    were to mature into a larger wind-producing MCS a severe
    thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s-hUzLUMZNYhO1_iD7pCM5_Aff9fYGomWQNZ4vUWLov_aGrbPuuzvj-XzkgPdGqQZU27cehU$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45779119 45888985 46108868 46238759 45838755 45518838
    45328934 45429079 45779119=20



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