• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0886

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 20:25:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082024=20
    SDZ000-082200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0886
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...Western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082024Z - 082200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradually destabilizing atmosphere may support isolated
    strong to severe storm development across western South Dakota in
    the next couple of hours. Uncertainty on storm coverage/severe
    potential remains high suggesting a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite data showed an area of
    towering cumulus/immature thunderstorms developing across western
    south Dakota in advance of a shortwave trough across the central
    Rockies. The 19z observed sounding from UNR shows a deep and
    well-mixed boundary layer with little remaining MLCINH and lapse
    rates approaching 9 C/km. Plentiful buoyancy for strong updrafts
    exists from SPC Mesoanalysis, with surface temps/dewpoints in the
    mid 90s and low 60s F contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
    Vertical shear is somewhat displaced from the developing storms as
    the primary shortwave trough and flow remain to the west. While
    uncertain, an increase in severe potential is possible as greater
    background ascent/deeper flow aloft begin to overspread western
    South Dakota in the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts appear to
    the primary threat given steep mid and low-level lapse rates, though
    isolated severe hail will also be possible given the degree of
    destabilization. Given the limited spatial coverage/severe potential
    expected a watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vPMPuXdqY_T2F0PYK-ItgeZY53aS6S5tRA9kxFuFxKuYUUL1VsGV7PxonRx1_-UyU_b2uSeh$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45820289 45660214 45190137 44110113 43420123 43110161
    43060260 43470333 44240386 44510399 44980398 45600367
    45820289=20



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