• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0884

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 18:07:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081806=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-081930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0884
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...Central North Dakota into north central South
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081806Z - 081930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and possible strong/damaging wind gusts will
    likely continue this afternoon in central North Dakota.
    Uncertainties with storm persistence and overall coverage keep
    confidence in the need for a WW low.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has been ongoing for several hours. Operational CAM guidance has done a very poor job of capturing this
    activity. Hourly HRRR guidance continues to try and weaken/dissipate
    the complex with each successive run. Given the continued influx of
    higher theta-e air, it seems reasonable that this activity will
    likely survive longer than guidance suggests.

    Storm motion has generally been somewhat westward to southwestward
    into the instability axis in central South Dakota. This motion has
    taken storms into somewhat greater effective shear at around 25-30
    kts. Recent KBIS radar imagery shows that two supercells have
    increased in organization over the last hour. However, their radar
    presentation also suggests they may be somewhat elevated above
    outflow from last night's convection in the area. Very steep
    mid-level lapse rates will support large hail with storms that
    remain organized. A wind gust threat would also be present if storms
    eventually become surface-based.

    While additional storms may develop along the outflow, this scenario
    also is uncertain. Trends will be monitored, but no WW is expected
    given the uncertainties and limited spatial extent of the threat.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pXbwwLvf4Q66PONh99PBeagRvP9in9xEFxotH7O1_4luHHtzBIUVLZ_Fq-6iJ-uQiWmlo9yZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45410147 46820167 47630176 48120125 47850020 46869982
    45589986 45220042 45180111 45410147=20



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