Mesoscale Discussion 0884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021
Areas affected...Central North Dakota into north central South
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 081806Z - 081930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and possible strong/damaging wind gusts will
likely continue this afternoon in central North Dakota.
Uncertainties with storm persistence and overall coverage keep
confidence in the need for a WW low.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has been ongoing for several hours. Operational CAM guidance has done a very poor job of capturing this
activity. Hourly HRRR guidance continues to try and weaken/dissipate
the complex with each successive run. Given the continued influx of
higher theta-e air, it seems reasonable that this activity will
likely survive longer than guidance suggests.
Storm motion has generally been somewhat westward to southwestward
into the instability axis in central South Dakota. This motion has
taken storms into somewhat greater effective shear at around 25-30
kts. Recent KBIS radar imagery shows that two supercells have
increased in organization over the last hour. However, their radar
presentation also suggests they may be somewhat elevated above
outflow from last night's convection in the area. Very steep
mid-level lapse rates will support large hail with storms that
remain organized. A wind gust threat would also be present if storms
eventually become surface-based.
While additional storms may develop along the outflow, this scenario
also is uncertain. Trends will be monitored, but no WW is expected
given the uncertainties and limited spatial extent of the threat.
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