• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0883

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 16:18:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081618
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081617=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-081815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0883
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1117 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...northern LA...far southern AR...west-central MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081617Z - 081815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging surface gusts will probably increase
    this afternoon coincident with a small-scale bowing complex forecast
    to move from west to east across northern LA.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis at 11am CDT shows temperatures have
    warmed into the mid 80s deg F with mid 70s dewpoints across northern
    LA to the south of a stationary west to east oriented outflow
    boundary over southeast AR into northern MS. The Shreveport, LA 88D
    VAD is showing generally 30-40 kt southwesterly flow in the 1-4 km
    AGL layer. Model guidance maintains a ribbon of 30-kt southwesterly
    850 mb flow across northern LA this afternoon. Given the very
    unstable airmass (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) forecast by models this
    afternoon, it seems plausible a focused corridor for wind damage
    potential will evolve as the east TX cluster moves east this
    afternoon.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rAXy7jESitGwy3x763tnOPYfQbRU3hjHTK89Vn0l_1UTLapbMfggdVoED1JkOORDc0GDEnO_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32179103 31589372 32369403 32899381 33359321 33539113
    33169058 32679061 32239102 32179103=20



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