• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0882

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 15:11:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081511
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081511=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-081615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0882
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1011 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...northeast TX...northwest LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081511Z - 081615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The airmass over northeast TX and northwest LA will
    continue to slowly destabilize this morning ahead of an approaching
    squall line. An isolated risk for damaging gusts may eventually
    materialize this afternoon across northern LA.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 10am CDT shows a squall line moving
    east across northeast TX. During the past hour, measured gusts have
    at ASOS sites have remained below 25 kt. However, gradual heating
    and associated destabilization is expected to occur across adjacent
    portions of northeast TX into northern LA later this morning into
    the early afternoon. The Shreveport, LA 88D VAD data shows flow in
    the 30-35 kt range in the 1-3 km AGL layer. This enhanced belt of
    flow coupled with the possibility for squall line intensification
    towards midday may result in the threat for wind damage to increase
    mainly for portions of northern LA. Will monitor convective trends
    in the short term for signs of storm intensification and the
    possibility for a watch later today. An upgrade to 15-percent wind probabilities and a categorical Slight Risk is anticipated for
    portions of northern LA for the upcoming 1630z Day 1 outlook.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qu3c5yogi5ysrIXpDG5W0bZXwHTozCOO95fNV05xyVqF6L2Yr6CRWKgT5jPy2fNJ5xXmk6u-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32609511 33049430 32929363 32299347 31869398 31639525
    32609511=20



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