• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0881

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 09:54:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080954
    SPC MCD 080953=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0881
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0453 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Edwards Plateau and Hill Country

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080953Z - 081200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradually weakening cluster of storms may approach the
    Austin and San Antonio areas by 8-9 AM, accompanied by strong
    surface gusts perhaps at least approaching severe limits.

    DISCUSSION...A relatively compact but fairly strong convectively
    driven surface cold pool (with 2-4 mb 2 hourly surface pressure
    rises and 50+ kt rear inflow within the lowest kilometer AGL) has
    been maintained across and south/southeast of the Abilene vicinity,
    with a forward propagation up to 40 kt. While a modest and
    gradually veering, south to southwesterly, low-level jet has been
    focusing strongest renewed thunderstorm development on the southern/southwestern flank of the cold pool, this forcing appears
    likely to gradually weaken through daybreak. However, given the
    seasonably moist boundary layer, characterized by large CAPE on the
    order of 2000-4000 J/kg, which extends far downstream, coupled with
    the current strength of the cold pool, it is possible that
    convection may be slow to weaken. And it could approach the Austin
    and Greater San Antonio areas by 13-14Z.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tZwJ_7J0L3TzkTldYFZpEn6bz9jTXNs_CGQYJDsiFzmo4oo_odOgpwLajOPQ2p0dtIHGvdvo$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31609919 31609871 31709832 31569818 29739769 29279927
    30579956 31479938 31609919=20

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