• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0880

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 09:09:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080909=20
    MIZ000-MNZ000-081115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0880
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0409 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...The Minnesota Arrowhead into western Lake Superior

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080909Z - 081115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for damaging surface gusts appears likely as an
    organizing cluster of storms propagates across the remainder of the
    Arrowhead of Minnesota, an north of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
    through 6-8 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...An elevated cluster of storms appears to be undergoing
    increasing organization, with a developing MCV and strengthening
    rear inflow. Rooted within lower/mid tropospheric warm advection,
    this appears to have been supported by lift of moist air
    characterized by moderate CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, in the presence of
    steep mid-level lapse rates and otherwise modest and weakly sheared
    westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow. Given the stable
    near-surface thermodynamic profiles, particularly as activity
    approaches the shores of western Lake Superior, the potential for
    downward mixing of 35-50+ kts of developing rear inflow to surface
    appears limited. Furthermore, activity appears likely to track
    north of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, along a mid-level thermal
    gradient delineating the periphery of warmer and more strongly
    capping elevated mixed-layer air.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tB33W6Lh0XsOlcm5cwQxrvRh_BenmwONsNcb6T6e5vmnRI1FR7oo9zT-8rJKt091p--hu3rX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

    LAT...LON 48129151 48488896 48358789 47788776 47488872 47368996
    47279112 47299166 47789145 48129151=20



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