• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0879

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 08:36:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080836
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080836=20
    NDZ000-081000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0879
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0336 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080836Z - 081000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing strong storm development, which may be
    occasionally producing severe hail, is expected to finally diminish
    around daybreak, if not before.

    DISCUSSION...Above rain-cooled surface air, and a near-surface layer
    impacted by a now waning convective cluster off to the
    east-northeast, a quasi-stationary area of vigorous thunderstorm
    development persists near and to the southeast of the Jamestown
    vicinity. This is focused within a persistent zone of lower/mid
    tropospheric warm advection, at least partially enhanced by a 30-35
    kt southerly 850 mb jet.=20=20

    In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates near the northeastern
    periphery of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, lifted parcels
    appear moist enough to support CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Aided
    by modest deep-layer shear, largely due to pronounced veering of
    winds with height, stronger storms probably continue to be
    accompanied by occasional severe hail, based on MRMS Mesh. This
    could continue another hour or two, before a combination of diurnal
    weakening of the low-level jet and rising heights associated with
    large-scale ridging building across the northern Great Plains
    increasingly suppresses convection toward 12-13Z.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t8hHwZE317GgtWwCWxhLiK5qzGhsy5ZBztosfFgIUG5ZagC-VrMXZgLpK7jlYfqHsjQLDXOQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47189890 47139788 46719698 46219671 45989756 46149837
    46469923 47189890=20



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