• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0878

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 06:11:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080611
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080611=20
    TXZ000-080815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0878
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0111 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into Big Country of
    western north Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

    Valid 080611Z - 080815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts remain possible with a southeastward
    advancing cluster of thunderstorms into the 3-5 AM time frame.=20
    There remains potential for some re-intensification of storms,
    particularly with activity approaching the Abilene area during the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...There has been some recent weakening (evident in MRMS
    CAPPI data) of the more intense convection on the leading edge of
    the southeastward propagating cold pool (still including 2-4+ mb 2
    hourly surface pressure rises in 05Z surface obs). However, based
    on current 30 kt forward propagation, 10-20 south to southeasterly
    ambient near surface winds are contributing to strong inflow of
    seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content characterized by
    CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. This extends along a corridor where
    stronger daytime differential surface heating took place, near the
    edge of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
    across the higher plains, as far east-southeast as the Mineral Wells
    and Stephenville areas. Although mid-level inhibition may be
    increasing, associated with continued gradual boundary-layer
    cooling, there still appears lingering potential for renewed storm intensification into the 08-10Z time frame. As the modest southerly
    low-level over the Texas South Plains gradually veers, this may
    become focused near/above the southern flank of the cold pool and
    approach the Abilene vicinity.

    ..Kerr.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ofzKud6l4LmmvpxwVByjgykT_o6LfCNwijFRKnIdM3Rfed2_94APf0aP7qZGhvfUN-9pz28z$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 34040010 33799925 32779830 32309956 32930117 33480111
    33660044 34040010=20



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