• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0876

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 03:29:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080329
    SPC MCD 080328=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0876
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1028 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle into Northwest

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

    Valid 080328Z - 080500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245

    SUMMARY...A severe weather threat will persist into the overnight
    hours ahead of a cluster of storms currently in the Texas Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms currently located between Amarillo
    and Lubbock is slowly drifting southeast toward increasing low-level
    moisture and instability with MUCAPE around 5000 J/kg. Mid-level
    westerly flow is around 25 kts, but with southeasterly surface
    winds, this translates to 30 to 35 knots of effective shear. This
    may help maintain storm organization as the cluster shifts
    southeastward. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the
    longevity of this cluster. Earlier HRRR runs showed an MCS
    continuing to central Texas during the overnight hours with recent
    runs struggling to assimilate the current convective activity. In
    addition, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
    downstream maintenance with marginally favorable shear, but recent
    storm trends have shown a large outflow boundary emanate from this
    activity and with weak mid-level flow and slow storm motions, storm
    activity may struggle on the downshear portion of this boundary
    despite an otherwise favorable environment.

    ..Bentley.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oSqDyAFSVauQ4Sv-2IVJe0rhWHhkVdFF84FDD39YvtaJwmJ0IpW0d_peE4hoNgKln8SHgpYE$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34490270 34760173 34640085 34019997 33550001 32970018
    32880100 33230195 33590252 34490270=20

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