• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0873

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 8 00:03:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080003=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-080230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0873
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0703 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of West Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080003Z - 080230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe weather threat may increase this evening
    as high-based storms moved into a more favorable environment. Owing
    to the isolated and conditional nature of the severe weather threat,
    a watch appears unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms that developed over the
    elevated terrain of northern New Mexico and along the surface
    pressure trough and dryline in eastern New Mexico and west Texas
    have slowly moved eastward this afternoon. Given the very deep
    inverted-V profiles, severe wind gusts will be possible with these
    storms. As the storms encounter a much more moist and unstable
    environment farther east, they are expected to intensify, posing a
    threat for severe wind and large hail over the next few hours. A
    watch is unlikely given the expected isolated nature of the severe
    threat.

    A conditional (and potentially more widespread) severe weather
    threat might evolve farther east after 0400 UTC if the initial
    storms are able to grow upscale, as the southerly low-level jet
    increases into the area. Given the uncertainty involved with
    convective evolution into a very unstable airmass, convective trends
    will continue to be monitored.

    ..Jirak/Thompson.. 06/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t-4-MwknBhTCpVwVpZU-RbMgL1hKdfd2LIKjT5AB0sprck2ZJQWAnjRBDJCLTNIf0vjepNlU$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32180227 33210283 33950305 34610325 35270326 35430271
    35490214 35140147 34250111 33310093 32510078 32260114
    32130161 32180227=20



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