• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0872

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 22:24:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072223=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-072330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0872
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Louisiana...southeast Arkansas...and
    portions of west-central Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243...

    Valid 072223Z - 072330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue through the evening
    across southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and western
    Mississippi

    DISCUSSION...A severe thunderstorm watch was recently issued for
    portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and western
    Mississippi. A line of storms is moving east from south-central
    Arkansas to north central Louisiana. The strongest cores within this
    line are primarily north of a composite outflow boundary that
    extends eastward to central Mississippi. This is likely due to the
    stabilizing effect of this line as it lifts north. Expect this trend
    to continue with the strongest storms remaining near the
    intersection of this outflow boundary with the main line and
    northward. The KSHV VWP shows 40 to 45 knots of southwesterly flow
    around 1-3 km. This flow is likely overspreading southwest Arkansas
    at this time with some sign of this stronger flow around 3km on the
    LZK VWP. Low-level flow remains southeasterly around 10 knots in
    southeast Arkansas, aided by the MCV. This has yielded a localized
    region with effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 per SPC
    mesoanalysis. Therefore, the potential for a brief tornado or two
    remains in this region through the evening.=20

    Expect the threat to wane by late evening/overnight as the boundary
    layer cools and shear weakens.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pIkJ-zE5yaXmsBJpVcNHSyKhtNkgE2b2QRN-p0O7T06dUMRYgpYgvHO_5Th17iMpjHD7_9XJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32129293 32469278 33609258 34119288 34379195 34199072
    33878961 33498901 33028900 33038950 33009088 32799198
    32259238 32089266 32129293=20



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