• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0871

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 22:08:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072208
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072208=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-072345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0871
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0508 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Dakotas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 072208Z - 072345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm potential is increasing across portions of
    the Dakotas. Large hail and damaging wind threat may warrant a
    severe thunderstorm watch in the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have soared to near 100F across central/north-central SD this afternoon. These readings are at/above
    forecast convective temperatures and recent visible satellite
    imagery supports this with deepening cu field and clustering
    occurring over southeast Corson County/northeast Dewey County, just
    west of Mobridge. This activity is evolving along the northeastern
    plume of steepest low-level lapse rates and should continue to
    mature over the next few hours. These trends are in line with
    earlier thinking regarding the possibility for organized convection
    evolving across this region, then spreading downstream toward
    southeast ND. Forecast soundings suggest hail/wind are the primary
    threats. WW may be warranted to account for this scenario.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rxQ5p0VFjUalDYPMtkxP5zqT7SDkhCdCVWvDD567yGG5fo66hgemw0zRG1_1sBG1KLCRwH1U$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45820091 46780009 47419815 46139751 44839932 44810076
    45820091=20



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