• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0870

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 20:50:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072049
    SPC MCD 072049=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0870
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Far Eastern Wyoming...Nebraska
    Panhandle...southwestern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072049Z - 072245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts are the most likely threat for
    storms moving northeast out of eastern Wyoming. Isolated large hail
    may occur as well. Storm organization and coverage will be limited.
    No WW is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has allowed surface temperatures
    to rise into the low 90s F. Storms have initiated within the Laramie
    Mountains vicinity and are likely to slowly move northeast with
    time. While hail is possible, very modest low-level moisture and
    buoyancy will likely keep most hail small with marginally severe
    hail remaining isolated. There is a higher probability of strong to
    severe wind gusts given the very deep boundary layer. Weakly rising
    heights will tend to keep storm coverage low and shear is rather
    weak for significant storm organization. Some increase in intensity
    could occur as activity moves into marginally greater boundary layer
    moisture on the plains, but a WW is not expected for this activity.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q396bWkKu_PshuDzXWRdhsqq3xliwrdW4YhVbWMG2lOZCAsVSVjsUcnwEDWKiygED_vWFGSv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42620497 44000420 44710264 44680170 44010109 42050196
    41470238 41260272 41180382 41080456 41270503 42620497=20

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