• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0869

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 20:08:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072008=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-072215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0869
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Far east Texas and northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

    Valid 072008Z - 072215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Recent intensification has occurred with a line of
    thunderstorms in portions of northwest/west-central Louisiana. The
    downstream environment will continue to support isolated to
    widely-scattered damaging wind gusts. As shear decreases to the
    east, some weakening may occur later this afternoon. The need for
    additional watches is uncertain. Trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown and increase in 50 dBZ
    cores on 7 and 9 km MRMS CAPPI data with the convective line
    entering northwestern Louisiana. This is coincident with storm
    encountering an increasingly unstable airmass with temperatures in
    the mid/upper 80s F and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Wind gusts
    thus far have been sub-severe over the past couple of hours.
    Effective shear is only 20-30 kts across the area, with the greatest
    values in close proximity to the well-developed MCV in
    north-central/northeast Texas. However, KSHV VAD data has recently
    observed 40-50 kts of flow in the lowest 2-3 km. Given the large
    buoyancy downstream, strong to severe wind gusts will remain
    possible with north-south oriented portions of the line.

    There is some question how intense the line will remain as it moves
    towards the Mississippi River. Given decreasing shear to the east,
    it seems probable some weakening will occur as it moves across
    northern Louisiana/southern Arkansas. While local areal extensions
    of the watch may be needed this afternoon, the need for a new
    downstream watch is not clear. Trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Wendt.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pz1bjUerRNtU-qrwrb5saqzapMo_yrcZ4zb9IrUiqflMfUunglSbacNG1WhyWjXekqduCy-s$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32929404 33359349 33579197 33309144 32809150 31769178
    31349198 31279237 31219343 31259393 31439449 32929404=20



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