• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0868

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 19:17:04 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 071916
    SPC MCD 071916=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0868
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0216 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...parts of southwest and central AR...far southeast

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

    Valid 071916Z - 072115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242

    SUMMARY...Several supercells exhibiting weak rotation will probably
    persist this afternoon within a moist and adequately sheared
    environment for low-level mesocyclones. A tornado risk may develop
    and perhaps be the sole risk with these storms.

    DISCUSSION...Single-site 88D imagery shows several supercells across
    southwest and southern AR ahead of an MCV located over north-central
    TX. Forecast hodographs show limited flow (at or below 30 kt)
    through the troposphere but east-southeasterly surface flow veering
    to 30-kt southwesterly 700 mb flow, is resulting in around 150 m2/s2
    effective SRH. Surface conditions show temperatures in the mid to
    upper 70s deg F with dewpoints in the lower 70s in the vicinity of a
    modifying outflow boundary. The RAP forecast soundings are showing
    a too-cool bias of 2 to 3 deg C at the surface. When modifying
    these soundings for current observations, moderate buoyancy
    (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) is depicted. Given the seemingly marginal
    but adequate low-level shear and moist boundary layer, it is
    plausible several low-level mesocyclones will pose an isolated risk
    for a tornado or two this afternoon.

    ..Smith.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u0VRgZM7OW87kmODCvGp1paw84J58Q5XVuYhjJitzyADU-JFeD0DpmdU1soE4cMQJTn5DUWo$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34259477 34749429 34789232 33949234 33559264 33889475

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1623093428-51543-5759--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)