• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0868

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 19:17:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071916
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071916=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-072115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0868
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0216 PM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...parts of southwest and central AR...far southeast
    OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

    Valid 071916Z - 072115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Several supercells exhibiting weak rotation will probably
    persist this afternoon within a moist and adequately sheared
    environment for low-level mesocyclones. A tornado risk may develop
    and perhaps be the sole risk with these storms.

    DISCUSSION...Single-site 88D imagery shows several supercells across
    southwest and southern AR ahead of an MCV located over north-central
    TX. Forecast hodographs show limited flow (at or below 30 kt)
    through the troposphere but east-southeasterly surface flow veering
    to 30-kt southwesterly 700 mb flow, is resulting in around 150 m2/s2
    effective SRH. Surface conditions show temperatures in the mid to
    upper 70s deg F with dewpoints in the lower 70s in the vicinity of a
    modifying outflow boundary. The RAP forecast soundings are showing
    a too-cool bias of 2 to 3 deg C at the surface. When modifying
    these soundings for current observations, moderate buoyancy
    (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) is depicted. Given the seemingly marginal
    but adequate low-level shear and moist boundary layer, it is
    plausible several low-level mesocyclones will pose an isolated risk
    for a tornado or two this afternoon.

    ..Smith.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u0VRgZM7OW87kmODCvGp1paw84J58Q5XVuYhjJitzyADU-JFeD0DpmdU1soE4cMQJTn5DUWo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34259477 34749429 34789232 33949234 33559264 33889475
    34259477=20



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