• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0867

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 14:37:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071436
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071436=20
    TXZ000-071700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0867
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0936 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...east-central and east TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 071436Z - 071700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts and wind damage will probably
    focus near and south of I-20 through mid afternoon as an MCS moves east-southeast towards the Sabine River. The expected rejuvenation
    of storm intensity with an associated severe threat will seemingly
    coincide with surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 80s deg
    F (around midday).

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this morning shows an MCS with an
    associated MCV over north-central TX moving east-southeast across
    the I-35 corridor. Surface temperatures to the east of the
    thunderstorm complex as of 930am, have warmed into the upper 70s to
    near 80 deg F with mid 70s dewpoints. Model guidance shows the
    gradual weakening of a LLJ this morning (currently 30-35 kt over
    east-central TX) but 25-kt southerly 850 mb flow is forecast to
    remain over east TX through the early afternoon---maintaining a
    moist conveyer. The 7am Shreveport and Lake Charles, LA raobs
    showed a very moist boundary layer with 16-18 g/kg lowest 100 mb
    mean mixing ratios and 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional heating
    during the morning into the early afternoon will result in a very
    unstable airmass across east TX on the southern periphery of the
    mid-level low over the Ozark Plateau. Current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by the midday hours but
    timing of issuance will coincide with radar trends. Forecast
    soundings suggest thunderstorm intensification in terms of a wind
    damage threat will probably coincide with surface temperatures
    warming into the mid 80s. This warming would equate to the need for
    a watch in the 11am-1pm timeframe.=20=20

    A risk for wind damage may also accompany storm activity on the
    northern periphery of the MCS on if storms develop a warm advection
    wing and surging portion of the line subsequently move east along
    the differential heating boundary/effective warm front.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oV0QSmwPlTWGZoX5hzOnG2vbB9AzaJr-3SJVqfJMzfYBJVx2Y_aaS1KmtnU1mN04GUBLCwvE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32599690 32539429 31989408 31409422 30919470 31269775
    31819778 32599690=20



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