• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0866

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 12:19:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071219=20
    TXZ000-071415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0866
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0719 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of north central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

    Valid 071219Z - 071415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
    continues.

    SUMMARY...While the severe weather risk has diminished in the near
    term, potential exists for substantive renewed intensification and organization, which may lead to increasing risk for severe hail and
    strong surface gusts near or just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth
    Metroplex by 9-11 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Strongest new thunderstorm development has become
    focused on the southern/southwestern flank of conglomerate
    convective outflow. This is where large-scale ascent is supported
    by weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, along the
    northeastern periphery of warmer and more strongly capping elevated
    mixed-layer air. This is also beneath modest to weak westerly to
    northwesterly flow, in the wake of weak large-scale mid-level
    troughing slowly shifting into the Mississippi Valley. The remnant
    nocturnal low-level jet probably contributed to enhancement of this
    lift, but this forcing is in the process of weakening.

    Still, with a continued slow southward suppression of the elevated
    mixed-layer air across north central Texas, coupled with a gradual
    warming of the seasonably moist boundary layer characterized by
    mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, there appears potential for substantive thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth through
    14-16Z. Intersecting outflow surges from one remnant cluster of
    storms now northwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and the
    newer cluster to the west, may provide one potential focus for
    intensifying and increasingly organized convection near or just
    south of Fort Worth. Given the environment, this gradually may be
    accompanied by strengthening rear inflow/downdrafts and increasing
    potential for strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tsB3sPR5nTy_pLRjkmXmNPrUgxlSNaD-w3DvcezVHUCQ6FOLmN1uC_P4Wp-QR5UcA1HdVKyn$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32599858 32839817 32969782 33039748 33019712 32479679
    31669869 32119951 32549923 32599858=20



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