• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0865

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 09:13:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070912=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-071045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0865
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0412 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Big Country into southern
    Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

    Valid 070912Z - 071045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A few strong gusts remain possible with generally
    weakening thunderstorm activity approaching the Wichita Falls
    vicinity through 5-6 AM CDT. Renewed strong to severe thunderstorm
    development remains possible to the northwest through north of
    Abilene.

    DISCUSSION...There has been some recent weakening of thunderstorm
    intensities, with downdrafts and associated surface outflow becoming
    more prominent. The largest of these is now surging
    east-northeastward at up to 30-35 kts, toward the Wichita Falls, TX
    vicinity, as another smaller downburst near Fredrick, OK approaches
    Wichita Falls from the northwest.=20=20

    While new/intensifying convection is possible as the outflows merge,
    this may be short-lived as the more prominent east-northeastward
    advancing outflow tends to progress into less unstable air across
    and northeast of the Red River vicinity. However, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development still appears possible upstream, above the southwestern flank of the cold pool across western north Texas, as
    the modest veering low-level low-level jet focuses lift near the
    periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated
    mixed-layer air.

    ..Kerr.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tJo5BL5aFpz81NA4eAoVuxZMGYZt6LzixrTlkOVfq6zkt_7m9xubKPxEkukHosuCCdrfrDpK$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

    LAT...LON 34769864 34879772 34469686 33849750 32999818 32399865
    32729987 33560067 34079985 34589977 34769864=20



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