• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0864

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 06:37:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070637
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070637=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-070800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0864
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 07 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Big Country
    into southwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240...

    Valid 070637Z - 070800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240
    continues.

    SUMMARY...At least scattered thunderstorms posing a risk for locally
    strong surface gusts and marginally severe hail will overspread and
    develop across the much of the Texas Big Country and adjacent
    portions of the Red River Valley through 3-5 AM CDT. It is not
    certain that another watch is needed, but trends are being monitored
    for this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered ongoing strong storms are propagating southeastward around 20 kt, a bit faster than than the 10-15 kt
    deep-layer westerly mean ambient wind field in which they are
    embedded. This is likely being supported by a modest (20-30 kt)
    southerly 850 mb jet across the Edwards Plateau into the South
    Plains and Big Country, which is contributing to relatively strong southeasterly low-level storm-relative inflow.=20=20

    The downstream boundary layer is seasonably moist, with steep
    lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates associated with elevated
    mixed-layer air contributing large CAPE as high as 3000-4000 J/kg.=20
    This provides potential for substantive further thunderstorm
    intensification and upscale growth along the leading edge of
    southeastward advancing, consolidating cold pools. However, the
    inhibition associated with the elevated mixed-layer air also appears
    strong, and as the low-level jet gradually veers from southerly to southwesterly through 08-10Z, weakening convergence may result in
    diminishing convective intensity on the forward propagating flank of
    the cold pools.

    Even if ongoing storms do weaken/dissipate, warm advection above the
    cold pools, in the wake of this activity, could support renewed
    vigorous thunderstorm development, with the potential to produce
    marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vu_u8j7TNGXzIeytPOW_CrRIy1JQZCfOVQDa4CxSG2CAF3oDxHhFLZyHs0h5AJkCP3mVWq65$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32540107 32890112 33230082 33690070 34060042 34430058
    34779986 34549876 32889842 31849890 31900093 32540107=20



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