• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0862

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 7 01:50:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 070149
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070149=20
    TXZ000-070345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0862
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0849 PM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

    Areas affected...TX Panhandle...TX South Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 070149Z - 070345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development expected soon across the TX
    Panhandle. Upscale growth into a convective line is possible, and
    convective trends will be monitored closely for potential watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery from AMA and LUB shows two
    well-defined boundaries. The eastern boundary is likely associated
    with low-level moisture retreating back westward across the Caprock
    while the western boundary is eastward-progressing outflow
    associated with the storms across the southern High Plains. This
    storm outflow is relatively strong, with both CVN and CVS both
    measuring 38 kt as as it moved through. Air mass over the region is
    moderately unstable and only weakly capped. 00Z AMA sounding sampled
    -54 J/kg of MLCIN, with mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
    suggesting similar values south into the TX South Plains. Given
    these thermodynamic conditions, thunderstorm development appears
    likely as the two boundaries collide. Evolution of these storms
    after they develop is uncertain, but one potential scenario forecast
    by recent HRRR runs is for the development of an organized,
    forward-propagating convective line. Given this potential and
    attendant severe threat, convective trends will be monitored closely
    over the next few hours.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rLwZN_tfE7iDg93Xe6pL5FMg9XeJOgrsWJQIOD8LaBrAa2fk_XNwTAIUU40fVXrwOcHgXrPx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33840280 34970271 35640256 36010192 35530094 32820097
    32640261 33840280=20



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