• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0861

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 6 22:58:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062258
    SPC MCD 062257=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0861
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0557 PM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the upper mississippi valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 062257Z - 070030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A conditional threat for isolated severe thunderstorms
    exists this evening across portions of Minnesota and far
    northwestern Wisconsin. If storms develop and can persist, then
    isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible. A Weather
    Watch appears unlikely due to limited overall storm coverage.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis at 2230Z shows an
    eastward-advancing cold front draped from near/south of
    International Falls Minnesota southward to Huron South Dakota and
    into portions of Nebraska. Strong diurnal heating has occurred
    along/east of the cold front, with temperatures generally in the
    upper 80s to low 90s (cooler to the north). While low-level moisture
    is somewhat modest, 50-60F surface dewpoints are contributing to
    MLCAPE values near 500-1500 J/kg.=20

    While some cumulus congestus clouds and a few radar echoes have
    developed over the past hour or so per radar and satellite imagery,
    uncertainty remains regarding convective coverage/maintenance due to
    the stronger frontal forcing and large-scale ascent remaining to the
    north over Canada and only a narrow corridor with little-to-no
    convective inhibition. If storms can develop and sustain themselves,
    then some transient storm organization would be possible due to
    effective bulk shear around 25-30 knots (along/near the front).
    Isolated to widely scattered damaging winds would be the primary
    threat in the strongest storms due to deep, well-mixed sub cloud
    layers. Though, some threat of large hail would also exist with the
    strongest updrafts.=20

    A Weather Watch appears unlikely due to the isolated nature of the
    any threat that could develop. Though, trends will continue to be

    ..Elliott/Thompson.. 06/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sVvPVsPM_FtRuKgluaDPfWpsb2tI6b8N8BaJHr7RHbDQW1YScOtdrGV1VDMTe22PQrt75JKt$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45829545 48599263 48359056 47379110 45659324 44209543
    44189578 44459613 45829545=20

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