• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0860

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 6 14:56:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061456
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061456=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0860
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0956 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

    Areas affected...southern Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and
    southwestern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061456Z - 061730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for short-lived, low-end tornadoes is evident
    across a broad portion of the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf
    Coast area. WW is not anticipated in the short term, but the area
    is being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations reveal a very moist
    low-level airmass across the central Gulf Coast/lower Mississippi
    Valley area, with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s inland, to the
    upper 70s in some coastal areas. The moist airmass is contributing
    to 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across the area -- which
    combined with broad ascent within the warm conveyor east of the
    upper low now centered over the Arklatex region is resulting in
    widespread shower/thunderstorm development.

    As daytime heating allows gradual additional destabilization to
    occur, convective coverage will likely expand, along with
    occasional/local enhancement of updrafts. While deep-layer flow
    remains somewhat muted, ample veering/increasing of the flow field
    in the lowest couple of km will continue to support some updraft
    rotation. Correspondingly, occasional/largely brief tornadic
    spin-ups are expected, which -- dependent upon convective evolution
    -- could eventually require WW consideration.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rFiPfdUO72thQe_U3beO4eDyYC1C9118bi71ZQomUzXRy2W9EHTZe_BOpr7gdcocu3BPZUvx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29669331 30379269 31209150 31669021 31838871 31638760
    30888758 28838883 28429081 29119319 29669331=20



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