Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021
Areas affected...Parts of north central North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...
Valid 060752Z - 060845Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather appears in the process of
diminishing across much of southwestern through central North
Dakota, and remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
238 will probably be allowed to expire as scheduled at 4 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Strongest surface gusts continue with a 40-50+ kt rear
inflow jet evident with a cluster of storms now spreading across and east-northeast of the Devils Lake area. Thunderstorm development
trailing to the west-southwest, across central North Dakota persists
in response to lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection. However, warmer and more strongly capping elevated
mixed-layer air is forecast to advect back northeastward across much
of north central North Dakota through 09-11Z, prior to the arrival
the leading edge of the stronger mid-level cooling associated with
the mid-level troughing crossing the northern Rockies. As this
occurs, lingering convection is expected to continue to
diminish/shift into Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239.
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