• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0858

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 6 06:22:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060622
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060622=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-060815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0858
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

    Areas affected...Much of central into northeastern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

    Valid 060622Z - 060815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe wind gusts likely will
    continue to accompany thunderstorm activity spreading across much of
    central through northeastern North Dakota by 2-4 AM CDT. A new
    severe thunderstorm watch probably will be issued for parts of
    northeastern North Dakota shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by lower/mid
    tropospheric warming advection, ahead of mid-level troughing
    progressing northeastward across the northern Rockies, is
    maintaining an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms. Convection appears
    mostly rooted above its associated conglomerate outflow, which has
    been surging east-northeastward around 40 kts.=20=20

    Despite the elevated nature of the convection, a deep, remnant
    sub-cloud mixed layer, above the shallow outflow, is still allowing
    for substantive evaporative cooling/melting to contribute to strong
    downdrafts beneath stronger storms, as well as downward mixing of
    50+ kt rear inflow evident in Minot radar data. This seems likely
    to continue at least another several hours, with activity likely
    spreading across and northeast of the Devils Lake area through
    07-09Z.

    ..Kerr.. 06/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tYnyGp5Ge56fMj05llkdtPNK0PiPAyi1NHEDyont_ve7KXLBu685mBUYvvEX9p4VwzGKRAWV$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 49089729 48019774 46519940 45720196 46080235 47780065
    49010024 49799854 49089729=20



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