Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021
Areas affected...Western/Central ND
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...
Valid 060447Z - 060615Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gust and isolated large hail
continues across much of western and central ND.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places the leading edge of the
cold front from about 50 miles west-northwest of HCO southwestward
to far northwestern SD (roughly 15 miles northwest of 2WX). The
thunderstorms ongoing across west-central and northwest ND are well
behind the front, while those over southwest ND and adjacent far
northwest SD are near the leading edge of the front. Storm intensity
has increased in those storms closer to the front, suggesting the
hail potential is likely increasing across southwest ND and
south-central ND. Strong wind gusts are also expected to continue
for the next few hours as the thunderstorm outflow progress eastward
through the deeply mixed air mass across the region. Some gradual
weakening of this outflow is possible thereafter as it accelerates
out ahead of the ongoing storms.
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