• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0856

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 6 02:16:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060216
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060215=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-060415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0856
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 PM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 060215Z - 060415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity this evening across North Dakota. Damaging wind gusts will
    be the primary threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
    over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...While convection has generally struggled over the past
    several hours across portions of Montana, very steep low-level lapse
    rates have allowed for occasional strong wind gusts even from
    relatively unorganized thunderstorms (e.g., most notably a recent
    measured 70 mph wind gust in Prairie County Montana). Forecast
    guidance continues to suggest this area of convection will become
    better organized as it overspreads greater buoyancy across North
    Dakota (e.g., 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) over the next few hours.
    Additionally, thunderstorm coverage/intensity should also increase
    as a southerly low-level jet develops through the evening.=20

    Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from any multicell
    cluster or bowing segment, as deeply-mixed boundary layers (per 00Z
    regional RAOBs) promote efficient thunderstorm downdrafts. Large
    hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts or with any
    storms that can remain semi-discrete given the 30-40 knots of
    effective bulk shear.=20=20

    While the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains unclear,
    owing to uncertainty regarding overall coverage of severe winds,
    trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance
    over the next few hours.

    ..Elliott/Thompson.. 06/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vqLhp4tAgbqrAavV9oD2ZpauDXtxER49fTdz_yL35HxSYge8j3NHstNgUeiqiZkb3h2vCujb$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 47290338 48020181 48530015 48689912 48379844 47249831
    46679980 46220146 45870324 45890394 46420408 47290338=20



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