• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0855

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 5 20:27:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 052027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052027=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-052230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0855
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021

    Areas affected...the south-central Montana/northwestern Wyoming
    vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 052027Z - 052230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Gradually increasing convection over the south-central
    Montana vicinity will pose a risk for very isolated, strong wind
    gusts. Need for potential WW remains uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon heating/mixing of a marginally moist boundary
    layer has led to a general decrease surface dewpoints across the
    region. Still, gradual destabilization is ongoing, with mixed-layer
    CAPE now around 500 J/kg per objective analyses over portions of
    south-central Montana near and west of Billings.=20=20

    TCU/CB development is ongoing over the higher terrain of
    southwestern Montana, with a few stronger updrafts now spreading
    into lower elevation areas. Activity remain isolated however, with
    any potential for gusty winds largely dependent upon evaporative
    assistance within the dry/well-mixed boundary layer.

    With time, greater wind risk would likely be contingent upon
    clustering/upscale growth of convection, and with limited
    instability with eastward/northeastward extent into eastern Montana, coverage/intensity of convection remains uncertain, despite ample
    deep-layer shear supported by enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow
    atop the region.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tvkfW29VLcjAwT6k4umIxlr0Xl7bwFBecWqK6Oq9VF1fEhunJ9X-uwUAUkRLJaZNpfw0_7PW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 44971138 45381155 46671022 47060916 46950712 46100688
    44910864 44880845 44301010 44971138=20



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