Mesoscale Discussion 0853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021
Areas affected...eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237...
Valid 050210Z - 050415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237
SUMMARY...The threat for sporadic severe gusts and marginal hail
continues over parts of eastern Montana this evening.
DISCUSSION...Several left-moving cells are currently moving
east/northeast along the northern fringe of WW 237, and may produce
marginal hail as well as strong wind gusts. The 00Z soundings from
TFX and GGW show mainly unidirectional flow aloft, with up to 50 kt
just below 500 mb. The GGW sounding in particular shows a good
hodograph for splitting cells.=20
Deep mixed layers are also noted due to warm surface temperatures,
with little CIN currently. Therefore, while convection remains
sparse across parts of the watch, additional activity may yet
develop over the next 1-2 hours along various outflows, with both
wind and marginal hail threat.
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