• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0852

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 4 22:01:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042201
    SPC MCD 042201=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0852
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

    Areas affected...southwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042201Z - 042330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms this afternoon across southwest Louisiana
    will pose a threat of brief tornadoes. The highly localized and
    marginal nature of the threat should preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southwest
    Louisiana within a very moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass.
    KLCH wind data suggests that weak mesolow may be developing across
    Cameron parish, just north of Holly Beach. This mesolow/MCV should
    maintain sufficient low-level convergence the next couple of hours
    to sustain ongoing thunderstorms before a gradual weakening later
    this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.

    VAD data from KLCH shows small, but strongly looped low-level
    hodographs which will support brief, transient low-level
    circulations. This is borne out in KLCH radar imagery showing
    several transient rotational velocity signatures within the broader thunderstorm complex across southwest Louisiana. As such, a couple
    of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening.

    The localized and marginal nature of the threat should preclude the
    need for a watch.

    ..Marsh/Thompson.. 06/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rmXqn-mkJ9w35q0h2ch5zlWsKoV4YcZ6rZofxNTX5bnB6hF3A9fDvj3ItUpHe0vJnbYKErYJ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29739373 30309367 30769349 30719247 29959240 29599268
    29639308 29739373=20

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