Mesoscale Discussion 0852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021
Areas affected...southwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 042201Z - 042330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms this afternoon across southwest Louisiana
will pose a threat of brief tornadoes. The highly localized and
marginal nature of the threat should preclude the need for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southwest
Louisiana within a very moist, unstable, and weakly capped airmass.
KLCH wind data suggests that weak mesolow may be developing across
Cameron parish, just north of Holly Beach. This mesolow/MCV should
maintain sufficient low-level convergence the next couple of hours
to sustain ongoing thunderstorms before a gradual weakening later
this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
VAD data from KLCH shows small, but strongly looped low-level
hodographs which will support brief, transient low-level
circulations. This is borne out in KLCH radar imagery showing
several transient rotational velocity signatures within the broader thunderstorm complex across southwest Louisiana. As such, a couple
of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening.
The localized and marginal nature of the threat should preclude the
need for a watch.
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