• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0851

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 4 21:32:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042132
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042132=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-050000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0851
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0432 PM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

    Areas affected...northeast North Dakota into northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 042132Z - 050000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms forming within the surface trough may produce gusty
    winds at times, but a watch is unlikely barring substantial storm
    organization.

    DISCUSSION...Hot conditions have developed near the surface trough,
    with high-based convection already forming over northeast ND into
    far northwest MN. MLCAPE is most likely only a few hundred J/kg
    MLCAPE as surface dewpoints mix out.=20

    Lift within the surface trough as well as slight cooling aloft this
    evening may support storms for several more hours despite eventual
    capping due to cooling of the boundary layer. Deep-layer mean winds
    will support east/southeast moving storms, with gusty wind potential
    with Inverted-V soundings. More of a severe threat could occur over
    the next few hours should outflow become more substantial/organized
    than expected, but at this time a watch does not appear necessary.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uyJg-DV4OkqhsvncoIe6lU3Fe35KVrhF-ePnvmUMSg4a_zIXZAK3rDmHDhIucqkznU1OoXeF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48629358 48669323 48509303 48189299 47899328 47699431
    47349800 47509872 47819919 48199890 48469803 48739725
    49039663 49049530 49419518 49419487 49239469 48819451
    48629358=20



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