• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0848

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 4 18:27:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041827
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041826=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-042000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0848
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0126 PM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041826Z - 042000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms will continue shifting eastward
    across the Delaware Valley and southeastern Pennsylvania into New
    Jerse and the New York City area this afternoon. Locally
    strong/gusty winds are expected. A WW may be considered.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar Loop shows a area of thunderstorms moving
    slowly eastward across eastern Pennsylvania and into northwestern
    New Jersey at this time. A few stronger storms have evolved --
    aided by 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE as boundary-layer
    heating occurs beneath cool air aloft/steep lapse rates in
    conjunction with the vort max/short-wave trough crossing the central Appalachians. While lower tropospheric flow remains rather weak,
    moderate westerly mid-level flow is sufficient to support
    multicell-type organization, and thus potential for gusty winds
    capable of minor damage -- primarily limited to tree damage.

    As storms continue shifting eastward, they will begin affecting
    western fringes of the New York City metro area in the next 1 to 2
    hours.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pnBZ6Eq4nEuQplCkVTuG9_OZnX4C-1FeNPG5JWRbW1fC9v8IEfXQnBimZjXx3oXRU4QvXulD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39797722 40997549 41397470 41267391 39927428 39517543
    39467619 39797722=20



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