• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0847

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 4 16:47:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041647
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041646=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-041745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0847
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1146 AM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

    Areas affected...portions of Virginia into portions of the
    Chesapeake/Delmarva

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 041646Z - 041745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of minor damage will require
    WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Daytime heating in the wake of an eastward-moving band
    of high cloud cover has permitted 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to
    evolve over central and eastern Virginia. A band of thunderstorms
    has begun to develop in response, near a surface convergence axis
    aligned northeast-to-southwest across the area.=20=20

    With largely unidirectional west-northwesterly flow across the area
    increasing to 30 to 40 kt at mid levels, small bands of quick-moving
    storms will likely evolve, along with attendant risk for a few
    stronger winds gusts capable of minor damage.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uokU-U4wZTVlUeL0lkJySWm_b5la8jRGhRw96kIUy_8J39SBFZJSXYJoeNpEr_37MrXZWFKk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37487855 38467791 39477644 38927582 37927650 37157819
    37487855=20



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