• Pac-NW: TD Choi-Wan R23

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Fri Jun 4 10:43:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 041200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS CHOI-WAN IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 121.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
    A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
    SSTS, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
    THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
    TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
    NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
    MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR.
    THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
    EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
    BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
    GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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