• Pacific-EN: PTC Blanca 19

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Fri Jun 4 10:41:00 2021
    WTPZ32 KNHC 040832
    TCPEP2

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca Advisory Number 19
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
    200 AM PDT Fri Jun 04 2021

    ...BLANCA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
    ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


    SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.3N 115.6W
    ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
    ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca
    was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 115.6 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
    (11 km/h). A turn to the west is expected later this morning, and
    this motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
    The remnant low is expected to slowly weaken and dissipate within
    the next few days.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on Blanca. For additional information on the remnant low
    please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
    Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
    on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

    $$
    Forecaster Latto
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Fri Jun 4 10:41:00 2021
    WTPZ42 KNHC 040833
    TCDEP2

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca Discussion Number 19
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
    200 AM PDT Fri Jun 04 2021

    Blanca has been devoid of organized deep convection since midday
    yesterday, with the last convective burst near the center ceasing
    over 15 hours ago. Since that time there have been a few convective
    cells noted 120 to 150 n mi east-northeast of the center, but these
    have been short lived. This is a big change from this time
    yesterday, when a large burst of deep convection developed during
    the diurnal maximum close the center of the cyclone. This trend is
    indicative of the strong west-southwesterly shear and the dry and
    stable atmospheric environment taking their toll on the system.
    These hostile environmental factors are not expected to improve,
    while the forward path of the cyclone takes it over progressively
    cooler waters. Therefore, it is anticipated that persistent deep
    convection will not redevelop near the center of the system, and
    Blanca is being designated as a remnant low. The low is expected to
    gradually spin down and is likely to dissipate within the next few
    days. The overnight ASCAT overpasses did not sample the center of
    the system, so a blend of the T/CI numbers of 1.0/2.0 from the most
    recent satellite intensity estimate from TAFB supports maintaining
    the advisory intensity at 25 kt.

    Over the past 12 hours Blanca has been moving west-northwestward, or
    300/06 kt. A turn to the west is expected later this morning as the
    shallow system gets caught up in the flow around a low-level ridge
    to the north. This westward motion should continue until the system
    dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
    previous one and is near the multi-model consensus.

    This is the last NHC advisory on Blanca. For additional information
    on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
    National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
    FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 04/0900Z 16.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 04/1800Z 16.4N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    24H 05/0600Z 16.4N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 05/1800Z 16.4N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 06/0600Z 16.4N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    60H 06/1800Z 16.4N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Latto
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