• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0846

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 3 22:59:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032258
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032258=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-040130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0846
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0558 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Oregon into western Idaho and
    western Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032258Z - 040130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two remains possible with the stronger
    storms into the early evening hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A deep, dry boundary layer has evolved this afternoon
    across portions of the Interior West along the periphery of an upper
    ridge. Strong heating beneath an 8+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rate
    environment has promoted enough lift and marginal instability (i.e.
    at or under 500 J/kg MLCAPE) to support thunderstorm development. A
    couple of storms have briefly acquired appreciable intensity over
    the past hour (with a 45 kt gust recently measured in Owyhee County,
    ID), and a couple more storms may support a strong/damaging gust
    through the evening hours given the aforementioned steep lapse rates
    in place. However, the sparse and brief nature of the severe threat
    precludes a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v8vucopSQFb61Z9beOdjIaMksO-xrMnSG_XFs6dhuSyG2fxyZQeNnPjGoTC_NbD_Izq6Nk4Z$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...

    LAT...LON 42681986 44241930 44821875 46731627 48131312 48591119
    48551006 47970976 47251077 46461216 44801474 43621578
    42851610 42361684 42241880 42681986=20



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