• Pacific-EN: TD Blanca D16

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Jun 3 15:45:00 2021
    WTPZ42 KNHC 031437
    TCDEP2

    Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
    900 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

    The satellite presentation of Blanca this morning is a bit better
    organized with the diurnal convective maximum resulting in a region
    of cold cloud tops between -75 to -80 C with some slight banding
    near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak
    intensity estimates were 30 kt from both SAB and TAFB, while the
    most recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate was 33 kt. The initial
    intensity was kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

    The ongoing burst of convective activity has nudged the center of
    Blanca slightly further north and slowed the system further, with an
    average 12-h heading of 275/3 kt. Assuming that the convective
    activity this morning is transient, the shallow cyclone should
    remain steered westward for the foreseeable future by a poleward
    low-level ridge. The latest forecast is similar to the previous
    cycle, and lies just slightly south of the TVCE consensus guidance.

    The ongoing convective activity near Blanca has given it at least
    another 12-18 hours of life. In fact, it would not be out of the
    question that Blanca could briefly regain tropical storm status if
    the convection proves to be more persistent, especially since the
    cyclone remains over 27 C sea-surface temperatures and these values
    only slowly decrease as the forecast track parallels the 26-deg-C
    isotherm. However, unfavorable strong vertical wind shear resulting
    in entrainment of dry, stable air to the northwest should eventually
    win out, with the latest NHC forecast still expecting Blanca to
    become a remnant low in 24 h, followed by dissipation in 72-96 h.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 03/1500Z 15.7N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 04/0000Z 15.7N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 05/0000Z 15.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    48H 05/1200Z 16.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    60H 06/0000Z 16.2N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    72H 06/1200Z 16.4N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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