• Pac-NW: TS Choi-Wan R19

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Jun 3 15:44:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 031200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS CHOI-WAN IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 118.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
    A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
    SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
    INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
    CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
    AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ
    MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
    CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
    UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
    REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
    BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE
    TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
    SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
    IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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