• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0844

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 3 17:46:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031746
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031746=20
    PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-031945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0844
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

    Areas affected...southern and central Virginia northeastward to
    southeastern Pennsylvania and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031746Z - 031945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong/severe storms are expected to develop this
    afternoon along and east of the higher terrain. A WW may be
    required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a recent
    increase in vertical cumulus growth in the vicinity of the Blue
    Ridge, as rather thin/broken high cloudiness continues to permit
    gradual heating. While rather weak lapse rates will limit
    destabilization potential to some degree, 500 to 1000 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE is now indicated across central and northern
    Virginia. This will support a continued, gradual increase in
    convective coverage and intensity this afternoon, as large-scale
    ascent ahead of the eastward-moving Ohio Valley trough continues to
    spread across the region.

    Aiding in local convective intensification will be amply strong
    0-6km shear, supported by a belt of mid-level southwesterly flow
    around 40 kt atop the area. As such, a few multicell
    clusters/bands, and even a couple of storms with mid-level rotation,
    are expected. This gradual ramp-up in convective coverage/intensity
    -- and associated risk for primarily damaging wind gusts -- will
    likely require some consideration for WW issuance this afternoon.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vkB1qGbe_SdTvj0uJS7Yw4epMGZxQ_MkQVdQ3lG9wt1AumbVXL1eY_Ro7Pbf_c8TbG3t0cfI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37567981 37768003 39447818 40337645 40467526 39837503
    38487583 37427661 37077758 37047901 37567981=20



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