• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0843

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 3 17:26:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031726
    SPC MCD 031726=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0843
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 03 2021

    Areas affected...Central KY...Middle TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031726Z - 031930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of damaging wind gusts and/or
    isolated hail are possible for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple southwest-to-northeast oriented thunderstorm
    bands have developed from central KY into middle TN ahead of the
    upper low currently centered near the convergence of MS and OH
    Rivers. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow aloft precedes this
    upper low, stretching from northwest MS through the TN Valley and
    through the northern Mid-Atlantic. Overall instability is modest
    (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis), but still
    sufficient for thunderstorm development. Some localized increases in
    buoyancy are possible in areas where cloud breaks and resulting
    stronger diurnal heating occurs. Given this combination of buoyancy
    and moderate flow aloft, a few stronger storms capable of damaging
    wind gusts and isolated hail may develop. Overall duration and
    coverage of any strong to severe storms is expected to be limited,
    owing predominately to the lack of stronger buoyancy.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oNjet2nuO2kssyOEnyJCq-EMH0GuYdOZJOgr6t0T2NcIbF_ZHbNKzKxt_IfeJPy0yTlElLYz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38258528 38778445 38698382 38458369 37558407 36328444
    35288540 35448821 38258528=20

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