• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0842

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 3 02:06:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 030206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030205=20
    TNZ000-030330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0842
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0905 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

    Areas affected...portions of Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 030205Z - 030330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado
    remain possible over the next couple of hours. The brief, isolated
    nature of the severe threat precludes a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A few discrete storm structures have recently exhibited
    transient supercell characteristics over the past hour, with brief
    instances of low to mid-level rotation noted via KOHX and MRMS
    mosaic radar data. MRMS MESH also suggests that up 1 inch diameter
    stones may be falling with some of the stronger storms. The 00Z BNA
    observed sounding sampled near 1500 J/kg SBCAPE, with over 500 J/kg
    MLCAPE. While this instability is gradually waning with nocturnal
    cooling, the BNA sounding and 01Z KOHX VWP have sampled around 150
    m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, all of which is included in the effective storm
    inflow layer. As such, a tornado cannot be ruled out with any of the
    stronger storms that manages to develop a persistent low-level
    mesocyclone, in addition to a damaging gust or two and perhaps some
    marginally severe hail. However, given gradual boundary-layer
    stabilization, the ongoing storms are likely at peak intensity, with
    the spatial coverage of severe expected to be quite sparse. As such,
    a WW issuance is not currently planned.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qxed2jnLdTXvBebEL0KdTrm-CuYOkzWo5BQmRn2gYWHpVjQAZIm2Fw_dlOfvUEWL5nCkCsMk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35788833 36278797 36558771 36568725 36438651 36298615
    36068604 35828617 35658676 35648787 35788833=20



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