Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Areas affected...central and southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 022156Z - 030030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage along a front from the
Austin area toward Houston. Isolated strong wind gusts or marginal
hail cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Moderate instability with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE has
developed along and south of a stalled front extending from central
into southeast Texas this afternoon. Winds in the low levels are
weak, but increasing winds aloft in the mid to high levels may
support a few southeastward-moving clusters as storms develop near
the front. Other storms ongoing near San Angelo may also persist
southeastward near the boundary, with marginal wind or hail threat.
Currently, it appears expected severe coverage downstream of watch
233 may not warrant a new watch, but one could be needed should
storms become better organized with any substantial wind threat.
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