• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0839

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 2 21:47:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022147
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022147=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-022315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0839
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0447 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

    Areas affected...parts of southern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022147Z - 022315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado remains possible with any of the stronger
    storms with more persistent low-level rotation. The tornado threat
    is expected to be too sparse and localized to warrant a WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, exhibiting occasional transient
    supercell structure, have been showing signs of stronger, more
    persistent low-level rotation over the past hour or so, as shown by
    MRMS mosaic radar imagery. A tornado was reported with a transient
    supercell in Duplin County, and KLTX high-resolution radar data is
    also showing weak low-level mesocyclone development with storms
    entering Bladen and Columbus counties. While recent KMHX and KLTX
    VWPs suggest that low-level shear is weak overall, these
    semi-discrete storms are traversing a diffuse baroclinic zone, where
    locally enhanced effective SRH and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (with 150 J/kg
    0-3 km CAPE) is supporting updraft organization and occasional
    low-level rotation. As such, a brief tornado or two remains possible
    for a few more hours, before convective overturning or
    boundary-layer cooling serve to diminish any remaining severe
    threat. The very isolated, brief nature of the tornado threat
    precludes a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qUXvNIy2DtXFyHFlaeT-bG4c4Gisz9UeFj2_YViKyKAO08iQQbUX8CW5C5Mp1zMAbZi5IcTJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34357913 34737895 34927875 35167807 35257745 35187701
    34857689 34597712 34347759 34177801 34077852 34037900
    34357913=20



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