• Pacific-EN: TS Blanca D12

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 2 15:44:00 2021
    WTPZ42 KNHC 021455
    TCDEP2

    Tropical Storm Blanca Discussion Number 12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
    900 AM MDT Wed Jun 02 2021

    Similar to yesterday, deep convective activity has waned with Blanca
    this morning as the cyclone continues to be impacted by dry-air
    entrainment imported by high west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
    The low-level center is once again becoming exposed to the west of
    the convective cloud mass. While there has not been any helpful
    overnight scatterometer passes, an earlier 0844 UTC AMSR-2 microwave
    pass suggested that the low-level circulation is gradually becoming
    more diffuse, with several possible low level swirls embedded
    within. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are T2.0/35 kt from
    SAB and T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, while the most recent UW-CIMSS
    Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimate was 34 kt. The current
    intensity estimate was held at 40 kt for this advisory.

    Even though current sea surface temperatures remain sufficently warm
    underneath the cyclone (27-28 C), low-level, cold-air stratocumulus
    clouds can be seen on first-light visible imagery being entrained
    into the low-level circulation of Blanca. Strong vertical wind shear
    will continue over the next few days as sea surface temperatures
    decrease and the environment aloft becomes drier and more stable.
    While diurnal convective bursts are still likely to occur during
    this time, they will become less organized and more intermittent as
    the cyclone succumbs to the increasingly stable environment. The
    official NHC intensity forecast still calls for Blanca to become a
    tropical depression by Thursday and a remnant low by this weekend,
    which is in close agreement with the intensity guidance.

    After a minor northward position adjustment, Blanca appears to still
    be on a west-northwestward heading, albeit somewhat slower than
    earlier, at 300/4 kt. A westward turn is expected over the next 24
    hours as Blanca becomes a shallow cyclone and is mainly steered by
    the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC track
    forecast is somewhat further north than the previous forecast early
    on, but by the end of the forecast period is very close to the
    previous forecast track, and lies close to the HCCA consensus aid.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 02/1500Z 15.5N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 03/0000Z 15.6N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 03/1200Z 15.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
    36H 04/0000Z 15.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
    48H 04/1200Z 15.3N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
    60H 05/0000Z 15.3N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
    72H 05/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    96H 06/1200Z 15.3N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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