• Pac-NW: TD Choi-Wan R15

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 2 15:43:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 021200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS CHOI-WAN IS LOCATED AT 13.6N, 120.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
    THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS
    CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
    HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
    INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
    A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
    GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
    CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
    VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
    A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
    NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR AND
    LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
    WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
    A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    =
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)