• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0838

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 2 19:35:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021935
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021934=20
    ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-022130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0838
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

    Areas affected...Much of MS...Western AL...Southwest TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021934Z - 022130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the
    afternoon across portions of MS, AL, and southwest TN. A few of
    these storms may become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts
    and/or isolated hail.

    DISCUSSION...Broad low-level confluence is contributing to banded
    multicellular storm development across much of MS and into southwest
    TN. Thus far, updrafts have been rather transient with relatively
    short duration. However, the air mass continues to further
    destabilize amid strong heating and only partly cloudy skies. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg from most of MS, with
    around 1500 J/kg reaching across much of western TN. Instability
    drops off quickly with eastern extent, with only around 500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE across central AL. Even so, persistent low-level confluence
    is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm coverage, and
    vertical shear is strong enough to support a few more organized
    updrafts. Additionally, greater storm coverage increases the
    likelihood of storm mergers and resulting brief updraft
    intensification. Primary threat with any stronger storms is damaging
    wind gusts, although isolated hail is also possible.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rJQXYjYgFf2e7C9nCzV7vjAmwWFuZEikFqedEBKpJHjruaTuAkxcuOi85Qu4lN748qvcGlkI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 34938940 35348839 34798691 31728832 31989104 34188999
    34938940=20



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