• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0837

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 2 18:28:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021828
    SPC MCD 021828=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0837
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 021828Z - 022030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
    develop over the next couple of hours across western/central Texas.
    Hail and strong wind gusts may accompany this activity into the
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from morning convection extends
    from near BPG to SJT to BBD early this afternoon. Strong heating in
    the vicinity of the boundary amid upper 50s to low 60s surface
    dewpoints is aiding in strong destabilization, with 2000-2500 J/kg
    MLCAPE noted in 18z mesoanalysis data. A couple of initial
    thunderstorms have developed along/just north of the boundary within
    the past hour or two before weakening. Additional, more robust
    development, has been noted recently over northern Sterling County
    with additional deepening CU noted further northwest to the north of
    Midland. While large-scale forcing will remain somewhat modest,
    additional diurnal development is expected in the vicinity of the
    surface boundary given weak low level convergence and strong
    instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient shear should
    allow for a couple of organized cells capable of hail and strong
    gusts. Timing and convective coverage still remains somewhat
    uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
    over the next few hours.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vNEINlnL6Gh5dLd7KfYLGcStXSFACIoU-4rbj-31aYtuoThFLey8j6vFuVsrIp_VLr4UF53J$=
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    LAT...LON 32850192 32000051 31689966 31469927 31179910 30829922
    30629954 30490014 30600067 30780116 31500215 31990269
    32360289 32760275 32940235 32850192=20

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