• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0836

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 2 11:14:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021114
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021114=20
    TXZ000-021315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0836
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0614 AM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western north TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021114Z - 021315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will remain possible in the
    short term with a small cluster of storms. Watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster that has moved southeastward across
    northwest TX overnight has recently developed an MCV on its northern
    flank, and measured severe wind gusts to 59 mph have been reported
    from two West TX Mesonet sites. Velocity imagery from the KDYX radar
    shows enhanced inbound velocities along the apex of the bowing
    segment. Although the airmass downstream of this convection is only
    very weakly unstable, slightly greater low-level moisture in the
    form of upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints are present per
    recent observations. A rather modest (15-20 kt) southerly low-level
    jet may help maintain storm intensity in the short term, with
    isolated strong to severe wind gusts the main threat. Given the very
    limited thermodynamic environment, the overall severe risk is
    expected to remain too marginal/isolated for watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uxcmy8By6j5vp-a4ZilkljOZxvzsCxTx5E1Sq8cOm1fuw2bgfg_0sEYbZjbU2WsJf3HeQmUb$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33010085 33290063 33450015 33959997 33679865 33099862
    32509896 32339978 32440050 33010085=20



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